The arrival of 2026 has ushered in growing, cautious optimism that newly enacted tax incentives, infrastructure spending projects, and the growing impact of reshoring are likely to contribute to an improving economic outlook for the $52 billion foundry industry. 

An analysis prepared for AFS by Kentley Insights—soon to be distributed to all AFS Corporate Members—projects moderate casting-sales growth nationwide of 4.1% this year. Sales growth is projected to average 4.6% yearly through 2030. The experience for each individual foundry may vary widely based on markets served and customer-specific conditions. The analysis is based on government statistics, trend analysis, AFS surveys, and other information. 
In the separately conducted AFS Quarterly Metalcasters Outlook Survey, more than 60% of foundries projected increased casting sales in the next 12 months. In fact, 49% of responding foundries expressed a positive business outlook for 2026, with another 30% saying their outlook was neutral. Only 21% expressed a negative outlook, which is noteworthy since 2025 has not been a banner year for many foundries. 

Just over 37% expect an increase in their employee count over the coming year. Talent shortages remain a challenge at many foundries, though 20% of respondents did see an improvement over the past 12 months. Less than 10% said the situation has worsened.

More than 41% of respondents said they’re seeing an increase in reshored orders thanks to the Trump Administration’s tariffs, though a majority still are not. 
Despite the growing optimism, respondents again cited demand for castings as their No. 1 concern, just ahead of cost increases and labor shortages. Cited less frequently but still major concerns at some foundries were property and casualty insurance, tariffs, and worker training.

Impressively, 82% believe automation will be of increasing importance to the industry. 

Some 96% of foundries plan capital investments in 2026, ranging from small-dollar amounts to millions of dollars. A year ago, automation and robotics was the No. 1 category for capital investment. That remains a leading category, but the top six for 2026 are (1) grinding equipment; (2) Industry 4.0 equipment/sensors/analytics; (3) robotics; (4) molding equipment; (5) environmental controls; and (6) cranes and hoists.

As always, at any time, an unexpected turn of events could derail the outlook. Economic consultants retained by AFS note that consumer spending has been weaker in recent months. If that trend were to unexpectedly intensify, leading consumer-products companies to initiate widespread layoffs, then a recession could occur. About 35% of AFS survey respondents anticipate a recession, though most indicate the impact on their foundry would not be a major decline in casting sales. 

In the nation’s capital, AFS advocates Stephanie Salmon, Jeff Hannapel, and Christian Richter—backed up by member company officials and the headquarters staff—are aggressively advocating for policies that will improve the business climate and create short-term and long-term incentives for reindustrialization and capital investment. AFS is at work promoting legislation and executive branch activity to reinvigorate shipbuilding; foster more construction projects; encourage investment; crack down on foreign trade cheats; apply trade provisions fairly and uniformly; improve training programs; and reduce the regulatory burden on manufacturers while still protecting worker health and safety as well as the environment.