2016 Forecast: Small Gains in Short-Term
Following an overall down year for casting shipments in 2015, moderate gains are expected through 2018.
A Modern Casting Staff Report
(Click here to see the story as it appears in the January issue of Modern Casting.)
U.S. metalcasting industry sales is expected to reach $30.6 billion in 2018, according to the 2016 Metalcasting Forecast and Trends report published by the American Foundry Society, Schaumburg, Ill. This total shows the industry is recovering from the dramatic recession that began at the end of 2008 and continued through the first part of 2010. The industry bottomed out at $21.6 billion in shipments in 2009 at the depth of the recession. The industry began to rebound in 2010 with an estimated growth of 18% from the previous year to $25.46 billion, and this continued in 2012, when sales reached $31.19 billion.
Almost all metals are forecast to grow between 1% and 4% from 2015 to 2018, and all metals are predicted to show annual growth up to 4% through 2024.
The U.S. metalcasting industry is made up of 1,961 facilities, down from 2,380 in 2005. This reduction can be attributed to the recession, technological advancements, foreign competition and tightening regulations. Industry capacity is 15.3 million tons with the industry forecast to operate at 73% of capacity in 2015.
The U.S. is second in the world in casting shipments based on tonnage, following China and ahead of India. Based on the data secured through the “2014 Annual Census of World Casting Production” by Modern Casting magazine, China shipped 46.2 million metric tons of castings in 2014 compared to 10.47 million metric tons by the U.S. and 10.02 by India. Following the U.S. and India are Japan (5.54 million metric tons), Germany (5.25), Russia (4.2), Brazil (2.74), Korea (2.63), Italy (2.02) and France (1.73).
In the following pages, tables depict the breakdown of U.S. casting shipments by select metal and end-use markets with a forecast to 2024. This data is an estimated forecast based on an economic modeling tool and should be used only as an estimate. AFS cannot be held liable for its accuracy.